Avocado | Data Story

Avocados
How the world fell in love with a fruit...
and the consequences of this food affair

This is not a regular data story. Today you will find more data drama than ever -
natural disasters, hungry hipsters, organised crime, globalization in action and environmental concerns.
There is much more waiting for you on our data-driven journey in the world of avocado.

1997 - turning point for avocado trade

There wasn't much demand for avocado back in the 1960s, 70s or even 80s. It was only in France that the green fruit (today a fruit superstar) was relatively well known during these dark ages. The accelerating globalization in the late 1980s and early 1990s provoked a surge in the global demand for avocado. New untapped trade routes opened up as the 90s rolled out.

The USA started importing significant quantities of avocado in 1997, and by 2001 it surpassed France as the world leading importer. This was only the beginning of America's still evolving love story with the avocado.The US avocado rush was mirrored globally, and led to the expansion of the avocado trade which continued well into the new millennium and shows no signs of slowing down.

»» May 16 2017 marked yet another avocado price record, as reported on Bloomberg.
»» Avocado seems to be here to stay, trending higher than ever on Google this month.
»» Global trade of avocado grew 6x between 1995 and 2013
»» L. America, Australia & Africa export; N. America, Europe & Asia consume more and more.

How it all began

Natural disasters hit major exporters

In early May 2017, Bloomberg announced that Hass Avocado prices in Mexico (the most common type of avocado in the leading exporting city) have surged to an all time high. A 10 kg box traded for 530 pesos (£21.78). There is no record of higher avocado prices since Bloomberg started tracking 19 years ago.

According to the UN, every 3 out of 5 kilos of Hass avocados produced globally originate in Mexico.

A growers strike in Mexico and a drought in California have brought the price of avocados up. Another avocado exporter - Peru - was badly hit by the El Niño natural phenomenon.

And while Mexico exports mainly affect the price US consumers pay; Spain and Israel experienced a heatwave and South African avocados were hit by hail.

Chile had a rich avocado harvest. However, due to its strong domestic demand, only 55% of its avocados were exported.

The end is not in sight

Interest in avocado reaches all time heights in May 2017.

Looking at the media coverage from early May, most market analysts (including Bloomberg) put the blame for the exceptionally high avocado price tag on hipsters.

Thus, the first stop on our data-driven investigation was Google Trends, where we can track how interest has developed since 2004 when this data was first collected.

"Avocado nutrition" is the only avocado keyword we looked at that has already peaked (in 2014). "Avocado" and other related keywords are currently registering highest levels of interest since records began.

"Avocado Smoothie" and "Avocado Toast" are still enjoying their glory days, while there is an upward trend in the interest in "Avocado Tree" - projected to continue trending up alongside the interest in "Avocado" generally.

Another trend we identify on the chart is that the interest in avocado is cyclical - there are peaks during summer, and low points during winter, meaning we are yet to see the highest interest for 2017. July and August will bring even more avocado search (up to 1/5 more), and potentially more demand for the fruit.

Avocado may have started with the hipsters but is now a mainstream trend. Over 1,100,000 tons of avocado we trade globally might not have the poor hipsters to blame, it seems.

Mexico

The "new tomato" or the "green gold"

Mexico is the homeland of 8 out of 10 avocados consumed in the USA. Looking to diversify its economy, and with a neighbor that has a growing hunger for avocados, the Mexican government sees the fruit as a key national product for export. It is estimated around 100,000 households in Mexico depend (directly or indirectly) on avocado exports.

Another example of avocado's impact on Mexican society came from the leading export city of Tancítaro. Local avocado growers there have even organised themselves against organised crime, and have brought some peace in a rough Mexican province, ensuring a smoother supply of avocados for the US and the rest of the world.

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So who eats all this avocado?

Mainly the US. More and more countries follow.

In 2013, the latest year we have data for, the USA imported over 500,000 tons of avocado, being an unchallenged global leader of avocado import.

The Netherlands come in second with 143,555 tons imported, however the Netherlands exports close to 120,000 tons to landlocked neighbors, keeping roughly 25,000 for domestic needs.

The import for France, which ranks third, hasn't been that influenced by the global rush over the last 15 years. France has long had a taste for avocados and was a long-time #1 global importer until the 1990s. It imported just below 100,000 tons in 2013.

Canada and Japan, which were reported to have grown their avocado import by 320% and 100% respectively over the last six years, stand 4th and 5th globally. Japan's demand is not connected to its sushi culture, which often features avocado when served abroad, namely in the USA ("California rolls") and on the Iberian peninsula but not when served the traditional way.

The UK, despite being one of the early avocado adopters, is experiencing rapid growth of interest and demand, 30% in the last year alone.

And who sells all this avocado?

Mainly Mexico, but other Latin American, African and Pacific countries now grow it.

The surge in demand has subsequently brought a growing supply, and an ever growing number of exporting countries.

Mexico has a clear competitive advantage - it is one of the few countries where avocados can be produced all year round, and it is geographically closer to the the main global importer - the USA.

Peru exported 114, 515 tons of avocado, making it the second most prominent producer globally (the Netherlands resells avocado to neighbor countries). Peru's exports are known to be slow; delivery times to Europe often damage its reputation.

Its southern neighbor, Chile, follows in third. Chile and Israel, despite being major exporters, consume almost half of their avocado production domestically. Even so, Israel holds the largest market share in Europe during winter months.

Spain is the only major European importer which manages to meet a significant part of its domestic demand with national avocados. Due to the seasonality of the fruit, Spain switches from exporting to importing (from Israel, Peru and recently Africa) twice per year.

New players

South Africa and Kenya have recently entered the avocado export global trade, establishing themselves as welcome alternatives for the European market, and outperforming Peru on speed of delivery for Europe.

Columbia, Guatemala and Australia are also reported by freshplaza.com to be stepping up their avocado production.

China on the horizon

On top of the exponential growth in consumption globally, (namely in the US, Canada, Japan, the UK and Spain) Germany is starting to discover the avocado.

China also enters the avocado craze. China did not import a single avocado a few years ago, but today three containers per week are delivered from South America to meet a growing demand. Peru, unable to deliver on time to Europe, is looking at the Chinese market as an excellent opportunity to diversify its avocado market.

Raising concerns

Avocado is not an easy fruit to grow and its mass production brings many environmental challenges.

The avocado tree is a challenging plant to grow. It is seasonal and also it provides a rich harvest only every second year. Thus, despite the fact that exporters step up their game, analysts predict that avocado shortages will be common in the near future.

Avocado's needs for special conditions, in combination with the ever growing demand for the fruit, provoke concerns by a growing number of environmentalists. Similarly to coffee production, avocado is accountable for deforestation in the areas where it is grown. The avocado tree also demands large quantities of water which already has raised alerts in areas of Mexico where water is scarce.

Kalinax hopes the world finds a sustainable way to turn its food affair with avocado into a beautiful food love story. Hopefully, we have learned something from the imperfections of the global coffee industry.